Borrower Trends 2012: Capital Markets Recovery Holds Steady
Feb 1, 2012 3:06 PM, By Beth Mattson-Teig, Contributing Writer
The volume of multifamily and commercial real estate lending is a far cry from the frothy days of 2005 through 2007. Yet the flow of capital is growing and both borrowers and lenders are optimistic that financing will continue to improve in 2012.
According to National Real Estate Investor’s annual Borrower Trends Survey, more than half of lenders (56 percent) and 44 percent of borrowers are predicting that credit will be more widely available in the coming year.
That optimism is good news for borrowers who are hungry for capital. Jury & Associates Inc. is one developer that is hoping this will be the year that it clinches financing for a $300 million 1,000-room convention center hotel in Kansas City. The developer has been hard pressed to land debt in a climate where hotels remain a tough sell among lenders. “The new construction loans are very difficult today. However, lenders are at a point where they have to start lending more,” says Ronald Jury, president of Jury & Associates in Shawnee Mission, Kan.
No one is expecting the flood gates to open in 2012. Lenders remain conservative with stringent underwriting practices in place. But lenders are increasingly returning to the table and lending volumes are set to continue to rise. The lenders polled said that the total volume of commercial and multifamily loans at their firms increased by an average amount of 10.8 percent in 2011 with volumes expected to grow an additional 12.2 percent in 2012.
“Clearly, 2011 was a very active year, on the loan origination side, as well as on the acquisition side,” says Michael Melody, executive managing director and co-head of real estate investment banking for Jones Lang LaSalle Capital Markets group in the Americas. The volume of commercial and multifamily sales transactions rose 29 percent in 2011 to reach $162.8 billion, according to New York-based Real Capital Analytics. Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) originations index for commercial and multifamily loans hit 138 in the third quarter—the highest point since 2007. “It continues to be a favorable environment, and much improved from 2010,” adds Melody.
Low interest rates have played a key role in fueling borrower demand. “We’re working off of benchmarks that are at or near historic lows in an environment where there is still plenty of capital chasing the highest quality business,” says Melody. The one-month LIBOR is about 30 basis points and the 10-year Treasury is now below 2 percent. Factors such as the slow economic recovery and European debt crisis could help to keep a lid on rate increases in the coming year.
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