TRAFFIC PATTERNS
May 1, 2008 12:00 PM
MOST POPULAR GROCERS BY REGION
| NORTHEAST | MIDWEST | SOUTH | WEST | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ShopRite | 10.3% | Wal-Mart | 15.0% | Wal-Mart | 24.4% | Safeway | 10.6% |
| Stop 'n Shop | 8.5 | Kroger | 9.6 | Publix | 8.6 | Wal-Mart | 9.7 |
| Wal-Mart | 6.1 | Meijer | 7.7 | Kroger | 8.4 | Albertsons | 6.3 |
| Giant | 4.6 | Jewel-Osco | 3.7 | Food Lion | 4.3 | Ralph's | 4.9 |
| Shaw's | 4.3 | Giant Eagle | 3.4 | HEB | 4.0 | Von's | 3.9 |
| Source: BIGresearch | |||||||
WORRISOME CONSUMERS
BIGresearch's latest consumer survey reveals a deep level of pessimism in the marketplace.
37.9%
Percent of consumers reducing how often they dine out.
35.2%
Percent cutting back on vacations or travel.
3.6%
Percent of adults that feel “very confident” about the chances for a strong economy during the next six months.
52.2%
Percent of adults that feel “little confidence” about the chances of a strong economy during the next six months.
45.4%
Percent of shoppers that indicate they've become more practical and realistic in purchasing, the highest reading since December 2005.
57.8%
Percent of consumers that think there will be more layoffs in the next six months.
82.2%
Percent of shoppers that say gas prices are affecting spending in other areas.
HOLDING STEADY
Most retail REITs gained ground from a month ago. In general, stock prices seem to have stabilized at levels comfortably above 52-week lows.
| Symbol | Price* | 52-week High | Chg | 52-week Low | Chg | One Month Ago | Chg | Dec. 31, 2007 | YTD Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weingarten Realty Investors | WRI | $37.12 | $49.40 | -24.86% | $27.59 | 34.54% | $33.83 | 9.73% | $31.44 | 18.07% |
| Vornado Realty Trust | VNO | 93.29 | 123.27 | -24.32 | 76.64 | 21.72 | 86.12 | 8.33 | 87.95 | 6.07 |
| Simon Property Group | SPG | 101.99 | 118.25 | -13.75 | 74.80 | 36.35 | 95.02 | 7.34 | 86.86 | 17.42 |
| Regency Centers | REG | 69.85 | 85.30 | -18.11 | 52.61 | 32.77 | 65.19 | 7.15 | 64.49 | 8.31 |
| General Growth Properties | GGP | 40.25 | 65.81 | -38.84 | 30.20 | 33.28 | 37.92 | 6.14 | 41.18 | -2.26 |
| Equity One | EQY | 25.27 | 30.88 | -18.17 | 20.11 | 25.66 | 24.05 | 5.07 | 23.03 | 9.73 |
| National Retail Properties | NNN | 23.51 | 26.15 | -10.10 | 19.75 | 19.04 | 22.53 | 4.35 | 23.38 | -0.56 |
| Macerich | MAC | 72.88 | 98.10 | -25.71 | 57.50 | 26.75 | 69.87 | 4.31 | 71.06 | 2.56 |
| Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust | RPT | 22.61 | 38.75 | -41.65 | 19.04 | 18.75 | 21.79 | 3.76 | 21.37 | 5.80 |
| Kimco Realty | KIM | 39.73 | 49.78 | -20.19 | 29.00 | 37.00 | 38.30 | 3.73 | 36.40 | 9.15 |
| Cousins Properties | CUZ | 26.84 | 35.17 | -23.68 | 19.53 | 37.43 | 26.03 | 3.11 | 22.10 | 21.45 |
| Acadia Realty Trust | AKR | 25.17 | 29.00 | -13.21 | 21.17 | 18.89 | 24.49 | 2.78 | 25.61 | -1.72 |
| Taubman Centers | TCO | 56.20 | 61.52 | -8.65 | 41.30 | 36.08 | 54.93 | 2.31 | 49.19 | 14.25 |
| Inland Real Estate | IRC | 16.20 | 19.32 | -16.15 | 10.84 | 49.45 | 15.95 | 1.57 | 14.16 | 14.41 |
| Tanger Factory Outlet Centers | SKT | 40.41 | 44.43 | -9.05 | 32.32 | 25.03 | 39.99 | 1.05 | 37.71 | 7.16 |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust | FRT | 80.02 | 95.36 | -16.09 | 61.60 | 29.90 | 79.21 | 1.02 | 82.15 | -2.59 |
| Realty Income | O | 27.00 | 30.70 | -12.05 | 20.27 | 33.20 | 26.91 | 0.33 | 27.02 | -0.07 |
| Glimcher Realty Trust | GRT | 11.42 | 28.20 | -59.50 | 10.31 | 10.77 | 11.40 | 0.18 | 14.29 | -20.08 |
| Capital Lease Funding | LSE | 8.31 | 11.77 | -29.40 | 6.85 | 21.31 | 8.31 | 0.00 | 8.42 | -1.31 |
| Pennsylvania REIT | PEI | 24.93 | 49.38 | -49.51 | 22.00 | 13.32 | 25.03 | -0.40 | 29.68 | -16.00 |
| Developers Diversified Realty | DDR | 42.34 | 66.70 | -36.52 | 32.20 | 31.49 | 42.64 | -0.70 | 38.29 | 10.58 |
| Cedar Shopping Centers | CDR | 12.29 | 16.75 | -26.63 | 9.42 | 30.47 | 12.39 | -0.81 | 10.23 | 20.14 |
| Urstadt Biddle Properties | UBA | 16.62 | 19.73 | -15.76 | 13.50 | 23.11 | 16.76 | -0.84 | 15.50 | 7.23 |
| Kite Realty Group | KRG | 13.61 | 21.80 | -37.57 | 11.50 | 18.35 | 13.90 | -2.09 | 15.27 | -10.87 |
| CBL & Associates Properties | CBL | 24.69 | 47.90 | -48.46 | 21.12 | 16.90 | 25.27 | -2.30 | 23.91 | 3.26 |
| Saul Centers | BFS | 50.63 | 62.74 | -19.30 | 41.86 | 20.95 | 51.91 | -2.47 | 53.43 | -5.24 |
| Colonial Properties Trust | CLP | 23.56 | 50.59 | -53.43 | 19.46 | 21.07 | 24.83 | -5.11 | 22.63 | 4.11 |
| Agree Realty | ADC | 25.97 | 35.04 | -25.88 | 25.10 | 3.47 | 28.87 | -10.95 | 30.10 | -13.72 |
| Feldman Mall Properties | FMP | 1.93 | 12.30 | -84.31 | 1.26 | 53.17 | 2.73 | -29.30 | 3.69 | -47.70 |
| * As of 4/23/2008, bold indicates new 52-week highs and lows. Source: Retail Traffic |
||||||||||
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Markets Ranked by Under Construction Square Footage
| BUILDINGS | TOTAL GLA | PRE-LEASED SF | PRE-LEASED | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas / Ft. Worth | 130 | 13,333,556 | 7,708,677 | 57.8% |
| 2 | San Antonio | 35 | 7,363,857 | 4,757,535 | 64.6 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 120 | 5,991,642 | 4,039,219 | 67.4 |
| 4 | Inland Empire | 113 | 5,482,398 | 3,728,406 | 68.0 |
| 5 | Los Angeles | 102 | 5,234,374 | 4,427,144 | 84.6 |
| 6 | Chicago | 80 | 5,155,470 | 3,364,608 | 65.3 |
| 7 | Las Vegas | 161 | 4,292,802 | 2,618,922 | 61.0 |
| 8 | Tampa / St. Petersburg | 47 | 4,213,793 | 3,499,820 | 83.1 |
| 9 | Denver | 79 | 4,002,692 | 3,311,813 | 82.7 |
| 10 | Seattle / Puget Sound | 102 | 4,001,015 | 2,203,539 | 55.1 |
| 11 | Houston | 81 | 3,781,638 | 2,009,620 | 53.1 |
| 12 | Atlanta | 87 | 3,703,491 | 2,380,144 | 64.3 |
| 13 | Northern New Jersey | 61 | 3,636,907 | 2,563,477 | 70.5 |
| 14 | Washington, D.C. | 36 | 3,071,383 | 1,972,876 | 64.2 |
| 15 | Philadelphia | 101 | 2,735,066 | 1,801,795 | 65.9 |
| United States | 2,464 | 132,892,528 | 87,503,234 | 65.8 | |
| Source: CoStar | |||||
CHANGE IN VACANT SQUARE FOOTAGE
First Quarter 2007-08
| RANK | REGION | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southwest Florida | 72.3% |
| 2 | Tucson | 50.4 |
| 3 | Broward County | 40.2 |
| 4 | Jacksonville | 37.2 |
| 5 | Inland Empire | 29.7 |
| 6 | Phoenix | 26.9 |
| 7 | Orlando | 25.5 |
| 8 | Madison, Wis. | 24.7 |
| 9 | Oklahoma City | 23.1 |
| 10 | Palm Beach County, Fla. | 22.5 |
| 11 | Las Vegas | 22.4 |
| 12 | Hampton Roads, Va. | 20.9 |
| 13 | Birmingham, Ala. | 20.1 |
| 14 | Chicago | 19.7 |
| 15 | Austin, Texas | 18.2 |
| 16 | Minneapolis | 18.1 |
| 17 | Nashville | 15.1 |
| 18 | Memphis | 14.6 |
| 19 | Washington, D.C. | 13.4 |
| 20 | Atlanta | 12.8 |
| 21 | Tampa / St. Petersburg, Fla. | 12.7 |
| 22 | Los Angeles | 11.2 |
| 23 | San Diego | 11.1 |
| 24 | Miami - Dade County | 11.0 |
| 25 | Milwaukee | 10.8 |
| 26 | Richmond, Va. | 10.7 |
| 27 | Raleigh / Durham, N.C. | 10.5 |
| 28 | Dallas / Ft. Worth | 9.0 |
| 29 | East Bay / Oakland, Calif. | 8.2 |
| 30 | Greenville / Spartanburg, S.C. | 6.6 |
| 31 | West Michigan | 6.3 |
| 32 | St. Louis | 5.6 |
| 33 | San Antonio | 4.4 |
| 34 | Sacramento, Calif. | 4.2 |
| 35 | Tulsa, Okla. | 4.0 |
| 36 | Hartford, Conn. | 3.1 |
| 37 | Detroit | 2.5 |
| 38 | Indianapolis | 2.4 |
| 39 | Dayton, Ohio | 1.6 |
| 40 | Columbus, Ohio | 1.5 |
| 41 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 |
| 42 | Seattle / Puget Sound | 0.8 |
| 43 | Greensboro / Winston-Salem, N.C. | 0.6 |
TOP 15 FASTEST GROWING MARKETS LAST FIVE YEARS
| Market | 2008 Inventory | 2003 Inventory | Percent Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phoenix | 193,391,344 sf | 154,738,455 sf | 25 |
| 2 | Las Vegas | 109,824,016 | 88,927,768 | 23 |
| 3 | Inland Empire, Calif. | 161,433,731 | 132,700,289 | 22 |
| 4 | San Antonio | 111,432,783 | 92,765,541 | 20 |
| 5 | Austin | 54,616,413 | 45,883,583 | 19 |
| 6 | Raleigh / Durham, N.C. | 60,619,462 | 51,288,238 | 18 |
| 7 | Dallas / Ft. Worth | 300,736,456 | 257,591,709 | 17 |
| 8 | Southwest Florida 80,143,540 | 68,689,962 | 17 | |
| 9 | Sacramento, Calif. | 104,781,169 | 90,268,641 | 16 |
| 10 | Denver 160,107,045 | 138,746,955 | 15 | |
| 11 | Nashville | 82,399,458 | 71,517,756 | 15 |
| 12 | Atlanta | 257,285,427 | 223,944,940 | 15 |
| 13 | Tucson, Ariz. | 53,348,252 | 45,592,060 | 15 |
| 14 | Charlotte, N.C. | 50,494,006 | 44,254,295 | 14 |
| 15 | Orlando, Fla. | 138,881,454 | 121,973,319 | 14 |
| * Includes space under construction. Source: CoStar |
||||
RETURNS RING IN
| Year | Quarter 1 | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 | Annual Return | Since Inception Return Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1978 | 2.78% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.56% | 10.93% | 10.93% |
| 1979 | 2.36 | 1.56 | 2.50 | 4.40 | 11.24 | 11.09 |
| 1980 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 3.55 | 3.93 | 12.78 | 11.65 |
| 1981 | 1.52 | 2.60 | 2.71 | 3.78 | 11.02 | 11.49 |
| 1982 | 1.61 | 1.38 | 1.22 | 2.64 | 7.02 | 10.59 |
| 1983 | 1.96 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 5.45 | 13.84 | 11.12 |
| 1984 | 4.36 | 2.68 | 2.73 | 6.19 | 16.89 | 11.93 |
| 1985 | 2.24 | 3.56 | 2.01 | 5.92 | 14.40 | 12.23 |
| 1986 | 2.00 | 2.61 | 2.05 | 5.35 | 12.53 | 12.27 |
| 1987 | 1.99 | 2.59 | 2.28 | 5.01 | 12.37 | 12.28 |
| 1988 | 1.91 | 3.19 | 2.64 | 6.49 | 14.94 | 12.52 |
| 1989 | 2.41 | 3.02 | 2.60 | 3.96 | 12.52 | 12.52 |
| 1990 | 1.63 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 0.35 | 5.96 | 12.00 |
| 1991 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 0.35 | -3.67 | -1.85 | 10.95 |
| 1992 | 0.12 | -0.75 | 0.07 | -1.70 | -2.25 | 10.01 |
| 1993 | 0.95 | 1.03 | 1.55 | 1.22 | 4.84 | 9.68 |
| 1994 | 1.08 | 1.27 | 2.08 | 1.45 | 6.01 | 9.46 |
| 1995 | 1.75 | 1.46 | 1.32 | -0.58 | 3.98 | 9.15 |
| 1996 | 1.68 | 1.32 | 1.74 | 0.04 | 4.85 | 8.92 |
| 1997 | 1.24 | 1.64 | 2.33 | 3.07 | 8.53 | 8.90 |
| 1998 | 2.92 | 3.52 | 2.76 | 3.13 | 12.91 | 9.09 |
| 1999 | 2.21 | 2.27 | 2.16 | 2.59 | 9.55 | 9.11 |
| 2000 | 1.99 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.60 | 7.76 | 9.05 |
| 2001 | 2.21 | 1.88 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 6.74 | 8.95 |
| 2002 | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.07 | 4.60 | 13.74 | 9.14 |
| 2003 | 2.86 | 3.98 | 3.04 | 6.29 | 17.15 | 9.44 |
| 2004 | 3.00 | 5.35 | 5.08 | 7.83 | 22.95 | 9.91 |
| 2005 | 4.48 | 4.31 | 3.88 | 5.99 | 19.98 | 10.26 |
| 2006 | 3.41 | 2.96 | 2.97 | 3.39 | 13.35 | 10.36 |
| 2007 | 3.14 | 3.42 | 2.41 | 3.91 | 13.50 | 10.47 |
| Source: NCREIF | ||||||
