Traffic Patterns
Jan 1, 2008 12:00 PM
SOLID FOOTING
Centro Property Group's troubles in mid-December set off alarm bells for investors in other publicly traded retail real estate firms. However, most U.S. retail REITs are carrying managable debt loads as measured by debt-to-market-capitalization ratios. Further, only two REITs have as much as 10 percent of their debt maturing in 2008, meaning the sector is not exposed to heavy refinancing risks in the next 12 months.
| CBL & Associates Properties | General Growth Properties | Glimcher Realty | Macerich | Simon Property Group | Taubman | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Debt (in $M) | 5,193 | 26,892 | 1,460 | 6,888 | 23,390 | 2,903 |
| Debt-to-Market Cap Ratio (%) | 54.3 | 62.7 | 56.2 | 46.4 | 43.6 | 39.0 |
| 2008 Maturities (in $M) | 413.8 | 2,816.0 | 119.0 | 547.6 | 1,472.2 | 101.0 |
| As Percent of Total Debt | 8.0 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.5 |
| 2009 Maturities (in $M) | 379.9 | 3,540.0 | 319.8 | 692.6 | 2,148.9 | 281.0 |
| As Percent of Total Debt | 7.3 | 13.2 | 21.9 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 9.7 |
| Developers Diversified | Equity One | Federal Realty | Kimco Realty | Regency Centers | Ramco-Gershenson | Weingarten | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Debt (in $M) | 6,233 | 1,162 | 1,835 | 4,416 | 1,952 | 775 | 3,156 |
| Debt-to-Market Cap Ratio (%) | 45.5 | 36.6 | 25.4 | 27 | 26.8 | 49.4 | 43.1 |
| 2008 Maturities (in $M) | 359.0 | 36.0 | 19.0 | 760.0 | 24.0 | 180.0 | 253.0 |
| As Percent of Total Debt | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 17.2 | 1.2 | 23.2 | 8.0 |
| 2009 Maturities (in $M) | 398.0 | 243.0 | 188.0 | 337.0 | 63.0 | 35.0 | 113.0 |
| As Percent of Total Debt | 6.4 | 20.9 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
Source: Deutcshe Bank Securities Inc.
A LOOK THROUGH STOCK PRICES
The problems at Centro sent retail stocks crashing in late December.
| Symbol | Price* | 52-week High | Chg | 52-week Low | Chg | 31-Dec-06YTD | Chg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Retail Properties | NNN | $23.25 | $26.15 | -11.09% | $20.20 | 15.10% | $22.95 | 1.31% |
| Acadia Realty Trust | AKR | $25.10 | $29.00 | -13.45% | $21.71 | 15.61% | $25.02 | 0.32% |
| Taubman Centers | TCO | $50.31 | $63.87 | -21.23% | $45.67 | 10.16% | $50.86 | -1.08% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | $27.24 | $30.70 | -11.27% | $22.87 | 19.11% | $27.70 | -1.66% |
| Tanger Factory Outlet Centers | SKT | $37.99 | $44.43 | -14.49% | $32.32 | 17.54% | $39.08 | -2.79% |
| Saul Centers | BFS | $53.55 | $62.74 | -14.65% | $41.86 | 27.93% | $55.19 | -2.97% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust | FRT | $79.68 | $98.92 | -19.45% | $70.13 | 13.62% | $85.00 | -6.26% |
| Simon Property Group | SPG | $89.78 | $123.96 | -27.57% | $82.60 | 8.69% | $101.29 | -11.36% |
| Agree Realty Corp. | ADC | $30.36 | $36.00 | -15.67% | $27.29 | 11.25% | $34.37 | -11.67% |
| Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc. | UBA | $16.33 | $19.73 | -17.23% | $14.48 | 12.78% | $19.09 | -14.46% |
| Equity One Inc. | EQY | $22.00 | $30.88 | -28.76% | $21.21 | 3.72% | $26.66 | -17.48% |
| The Macerich Co. | MAC | $70.84 | $103.59 | -31.62% | $69.44 | 2.02% | $86.57 | -18.17% |
| Regency Centers Corp. | REG | $62.63 | $93.49 | -33.01% | $61.41 | 1.99% | $78.17 | -19.88% |
| Kimco Realty Corp. | KIM | $35.93 | $53.60 | -32.97% | $34.05 | 5.52% | $44.95 | -20.07% |
| General Growth Properties | GGP | $41.51 | $67.43 | -38.44% | $40.05 | 3.65% | $52.23 | -20.52% |
| Kite Realty Group | KRG | $14.76 | $21.80 | -32.29% | $13.95 | 5.81% | $18.62 | -20.73% |
| Inland Real Estate Corp. | IRC | $14.65 | $21.14 | -30.70% | $13.50 | 8.52% | $18.72 | -21.74% |
| PREIT | PEI | $29.46 | $50.39 | -41.54% | $28.48 | 3.44% | $39.38 | -25.19% |
| Capital Lease Funding | LSE | $8.65 | $11.94 | -27.55% | $7.96 | 8.67% | $11.60 | -25.43% |
| Weingarten Realty Investors | WRI | $33.13 | $52.30 | -36.65% | $32.52 | 1.88% | $46.11 | -28.15% |
| Vornado Realty Trust | VNO | $85.40 | $136.55 | -37.46% | $82.82 | 3.12% | $122.35 | -30.20% |
| Cedar Shopping Centers Inc. | CDR | $10.70 | $16.99 | -37.02% | $10.65 | 0.47% | $15.91 | -32.75% |
| Developers Diversified Realty Corp. | DDR | $39.48 | $72.33 | -45.42% | $38.15 | 3.49% | $62.95 | -37.28% |
| Cousins Properties Inc. | CUZ | $21.68 | $40.75 | -46.80% | $20.77 | 4.38% | $35.27 | -38.53% |
| Ramco-Gershenson Properties Trust | RPT | $21.81 | $38.75 | -43.72% | $21.20 | 2.88% | $38.14 | -42.82% |
| CBL & Associates Properties | CBL | $24.77 | $50.36 | -50.81% | $24.36 | 1.68% | $43.35 | -42.86% |
| Glimcher Realty Trust | GRT | $14.33 | $29.69 | -51.73% | $13.97 | 2.58% | $26.71 | -46.35% |
| Colonial Properties Trust | CLP | $21.36 | $50.59 | -57.78% | $20.97 | 1.86% | $46.88 | -54.44% |
| Feldman Mall Properties | FMP | $2.99 | $13.00 | -77.00% | $2.42 | 23.55% | $12.45 | -75.98% |
| * As of 12/19/2007 Source: Retail Traffic |
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