Traffic Patterns
Aug 1, 2007 12:00 PM
GAS PAINS
In mid-July average fuel prices pushed back past $3.00 per gallon and are up 2.0 percent from where they were a year ago. But on the whole, gas prices are up much less year-over-year than during the past two summers.
| 2007 | Price/Gallon | Wk./Wk. % | Rolling 4-Wk % | Rolling 52-Wk. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/25/07 | $2.98 | -0.9% | -7.1% | 3.9% |
| 7/2/07 | 2.96 | -0.8 | -6.3 | 0.9 |
| 7/9/07 | 2.98 | 0.7 | -3.1 | 0.3 |
| 7/16/07 | 3.05 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 2006 | ||||
| 6/26/06 | $2.87 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 29.5% |
| 7/3/06 | 2.93 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 31.8 |
| 7/10/06 | 2.97 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 27.7 |
| 7/17/06 | 2.99 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 29.0 |
| 2005 | ||||
| 6/27/05 | $2.22 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 15.3% |
| 7/4/05 | 2.23 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 17.5 |
| 7/10/05 | 2.33 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 21.4 |
| 7/18/05 | 2.32 | -0.5 | 7.2 | 20.2 |
| Source: Energy Information Administration, Citigroup Global Markets | ||||
ON THE CLOCK
Friedman-Billings Ramsey has 10 retailers on its Watchlist. Two are in bankruptcy protection already while the other eight are not. About half posted rough sales in June.
| Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bankruptcy | Share of Mall Space | Est. Mall Penetration | Jun-07 | 3-Month Average |
| KB Toys | 0.3% | 23 | N/A | N/A |
| Eddie Bauer | 0.4 | 17 | N/A | N/A |
| Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y) | ||||
| Negative Watchlist | Share of Mall Space | Est. Mall Penetration | Jun-07 | 3-Month Average |
| Express | 1.8 | 64 | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Pacific Sunwear | 0.7 | 61 | 5.7 | -1.1 |
| Gap | 1.3 | 49 | -9.0 | -10.0 |
| Wilson's Leather | 0.2 | 25 | -9.4 | -18.1 |
| Old Navy | 1.6 | 24 | -7.0 | -10.0 |
| Bombay Co. | 0.2 | 15 | N/A | N/A |
| Shaper Image | 0.1 | 11 | -7.0 | -8.7 |
| Bon-Ton | N/A | 3 | -18.1 | -13.1 |
| Mall Sales Monitor | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Source: FBR Research & company reports | ||||
Department stores mounted a rebound over the Christmas season. But recently sales figures have begun to lag again for some. Luxury chains Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom and Neiman-Marcus have bucked that trend.
| Comp-Store Sales Growth (y/y) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est. Mall Penetration | Jun-07 | Jun-06 | 3-Month Average | |
| Sears | 64% | N/A | -6.3% | -4.6% |
| JC Penney | 63 | -1.5% | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| Macy's | 56 | -2.7 | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Dillard's | 29 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -3.3 |
| Bon-Ton | 10 | -18.1 | 6.6 | -4.9% |
| Target | 10 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Nordstrom | 8 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| Saks Fifth Avenue | 3 | -5.6 | 5.3 | 11.4 |
| Gottschalks | 3 | -4.3 | 0.3 | -0.8 |
| Neiman-Marcus | 3 | N/A | 7.7 | 6.3 |
| Depatment Store Sales Monitor | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| Source: FBR Research & company reports | ||||
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